Credible Survey Shows Chip Cravaack Within 3 Points of 17-term incumbent Jim Oberstar
innesota.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/cravaack-logo-506×187.png” alt=”" width=”506″ height=”187″ />
Chip Cravaack announced results from a poll today that shows he is trailing entrenched incumbent Congressman Jim Oberstar by just three points. The new survey results catapult Cravaack onto the national radar screen showing he is capable of beating the 17-term incumbent. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS), a reputable firm who also polls for Sen. Scott Brown (Mass.) and Rep. John Kline (Minn.).
“The encouraging results reflect what I’ve been hearing from Minnesotans in the 8th District for over a year,” said Cravaack, a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and 24-year veteran who lives in Lindstrom. “Minnesotans have had enough of Jim Oberstar. They are tired of his rubber-stamping of Pelosi/Obama policies like Obamacare, a job-killing cap-and-trade energy scheme and the failed $862 billion stimulus that created debt, not jobs.”
Among the key findings from the survey:
- Cravaack trails Oberstar by only three points and he has the wind at his back.
- Voters in the 8th district are ready to make a change from the 17-term incumbent Jim Oberstar.
- Chip Cravaack has earned a favorable image in the district, giving him a legitimate shot at an upset in November.
“This survey clearly shows that Oberstar is vulnerable,” said Neil Newhouse, who conducted the poll in Minnesota for POS. “Voters are unhappy with the Democratic leadership in Washington and Oberstar is not immune from that sentiment. There is no question Chip Cravaack has a legitimate shot to pull off an upset.”
About Chip Cravaack
Cravaack is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and served in the U.S. Navy and Naval Reserve for 24 years during which he served at the Pentagon and NATO. After retiring from the Navy, he flew commercially for Northwest Airlines and served as a union representative for the Air Line Pilots Association. Cravaack lives with his wife and two young sons in Lindstrom where he served as the president of Parent Teacher Organization.
The Polling Data
TO: CRAVAACK FOR CONGRESS
FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE & JEREMY RUCH, PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
RE: POLLING DATA
DATE: OCTOBER 1, 2010
As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of likely voters in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 28th-29th among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.
1. Cravaack trails Oberstar by only three points, and he has the wind at his back.
What will come as a surprise to many political observers and to those who expect Oberstar to cruise to another term, Chip Cravaack trails the incumbent Congressman by just three points (42%-45%). This race is within the margin of error and, when looking at likely voters, Chip actually leads with over 50% of the vote.
The factors leading to this unexpectedly tight race are similar to what we’re seeing across the country. Voters have soured on Obama (he won this district with 53% of the vote, but his job approval is now 40%), they don’t like Nancy Pelosi (her image here is 27% fav- 53% unfav), and they prefer a Republican who will be a check and balance to Obama (46%) over a Democrat who will support Obama’s policies (34%).
2. Voters in the 8th district are ready to make a change from 17-term incumbent Jim Oberstar.
Congressman Jim Oberstar is obviously a well-known and popular figure in the 8th Congressional district, having held the seat since 1974. However, this survey indicates that this year, voters are ready to make a change. More voters prefer a new person (48%) than think Oberstar deserves re-election (40%). This sentiment is more pronounced among the voters who are up-for-grabs in November.
Independents prefer a new person by 49%-35%, and among those who are undecided in the Congressional race want a new person by 50%-19%.
3. Chip Cravaack has earned a favorable image in the district, giving him a legitimate shot at an upset in November.
Fully half of voters in the district have heard of Chip Cravaack, with 19% viewing him favorably and just 6% viewing him unfavorably. Chip’s hard work in the campaign has paid off so far, and he’s a established a level of name recognition that will allow him to mount a serious challenge to Oberstar.
THE BOTTOM LINE
In a race that’s barely on the radar screen of political handicappers, Chip Cravaack is poised to pull off an upset of 17-term incumbent Jim Oberstar. Voters indicate they’re simply ready to give a new person a chance. And, through his hard work in his first campaign for public office, Chip has established a positive image that gives him a real shot in this race. Chip is well- positioned to take advantage of voters’ frustration with Democrats in Washington and win on November 2nd.